As we brace for the last month before finals, things have certainly changed in the AFL, not least with the two teams who have all the momentum as we approach September: Geelong and Collingwood.
The Cats and the Magpies have both got nine-game winning streaks on the go, and they have the clear momentum with four rounds left in the home and away season.
Just to emphasise the point, if you look at the AFL form ladder for those nine weeks, Geelong and Collingwood are head and shoulders above any other team in the league.
The next most successful teams in that period are the Sydney Swans and Western Bulldogs with 6-3 records.
So, what have they doing right in the last nine games, what are they doing differently — from each other — and can they keep it going?
Clearly the Cats and the Magpies are not clones of each other: Geelong under Chris Scott looks different to Collingwood under Craig McRae.
Even though both teams have identical records in the past nine games, it is probably true to say that Geelong are the dominant team in the AFL right now — and a look at the Cats’s stats tells us why.
It’s true that they have had some tight matches, including the thrilling win over Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval last Saturday, where they had to kick two late goals in time-on to seal victory.
However, taken as a whole, Geelong is 9-0 with a percentage of 151.9. They have been scoring an average of 95.3 points per game, and conceding an average of 62.8.
In comparison, Collingwood is 9-0 with a percentage of 116.3. The Pies have scored an average of 80.8 points per game, and conceded an average of 69.4.
Geelong is the second-highest-scoring team for the season behind Brisbane, and the leading scoring team in the past nine games.
Defensively, they are the third-best defence (on points conceded) for the season behind Melbourne and leaders Fremantle — but in their last nine games they are the best, ahead of Collingwood, Carlton and Port Adelaide.
The most obvious element to Geelong in attack is the one-two punch of Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins.
* Turnover differential figure is a team’s average number of turnovers committed minus the figure for the opposition
In the nine-game window, the Geelong pair have combined for 49 goals — 27 for Cameron and 22 for Hawkins.
But it’s not just about the goals. It’s the way Geelong are doing it.
It starts with the clearances. The Cats have an advantage in clearance differential, winning an average of 3.6 more clearances than their opponents in the middle each week.
This translates to a lot of go-forward. The Cats are the second-highest in the league for inside-50s this season, at 57.1 entries per game, behind Richmond.
During their winning streak, Geelong has an identical return, but the key is their differential — they have racked up an average of 12.7 more entries than their opponents — putting more pressure on defences.
The leader in this area is veteran former Hawk Isaac Smith. Smith averages 4.8 inside-50s a game.
One benefit of the flood of inside-50s is that the Cats get a lot of marks inside the arc.
As might be expected, the lion’s share of those go to Hawkins (29) and Cameron (25). But they aren’t the only ones.
There have been 22 individual mark-takers inside-50 for Geelong from round 10 onwards. Aside from the main forward duo, players such as Tyson Stengle (12), Max Holmes (7), Cameron Guthrie (5), Joel Selwood, Brad Close, Gary Rohan, Mark Blicavs and Mitch Duncan (4 each) have all contributed.
Pies on the rise
For the Magpies, the key indicators are a little different.
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