In a season proving to be the closest in recent memory, the margin for error has never been slimmer — and a series of thrillers look set to shape the ladder.
Welcome to the AFL Round-Up, where we digest the week that was.
We, as human beings, don’t handle uncertainty and randomness very well. Most of us prefer to see the world through an ordered and logical lens, so the thought that chance and luck have as much to do with our fate as design and intention is an unsettling one.
Never does that tend to become more clear than when games of football get close.
If a team have a poor record in those matches, it’s easier to presume they possess a fatal flaw in their mentality and can be dismissed as contenders for premierships or finals or whatever their stated aim is.
If they have a good record in the tight ones? Maybe they’ve just got that dawg in them.
The truth of the matter is once games are being decided by under 10 points, and even more so under a goal, it’s a flip of the coin. It could genuinely go either way. Mental toughness and experience may give you a slight edge, but it’s not nearly as one-to-one as we like to think.
Which is worth remembering because those games are going to decide the 2022 AFL season.
Game 350 was one to remember for Scott Pendlebury.(Getty Images: James Elsby Look at Collingwood, for example. The Pies are on a hot streak of eight straight wins, including by the following margins: five points against Adelaide, seven points against North, five points against the Suns, four points against Hawthorn, four points against Carlton.
Then look at Richmond. They’ve lost three of their last four by margins of four points against North, two points against the Suns and three points against Geelong.
The upshot from those runs of results is the Pies are only out of third spot on percentage while the Tigers are deep in the dog fight to scrape into the eight.
The Tigers shot themselves in the foot with a slow start and horrendous kicking for goal.(Getty Images/AFL Photos: Morgan Hancock Is one of these teams three wins better than the other? On balance probably not, but that’s not what the ladder says.
While it’s not completely fair to simply say Collingwood have been luckier than Richmond, there is an alternate universe not too far from this one in which their fates are flipped. But that’s the beauty of the game: the fine margins make all the difference.
Sweet relief for the Roos Good old North Melbourne. Surely anyone not of yellow and black persuasion would have been screaming on the Roos in that ridiculous last quarter on Saturday.
The Roos enjoyed their first win since round two.(Getty Images: Daniel Pockett Many of North’s issues over the past few years have been self-inflicted, but the people who have suffered most from them have been the fans and the young players trying to get a start in a struggling team.
Both received some well-earned reward, in the form of an exhilarating win and football played with complete freedom and flair. Suddenly guys like Luke Davies-Uniacke, Jy Simpkin and Cam Zurhaar who have spent their formative years slogging uphill had their shackles released, and the results were thrilling.
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North Melbourne can set themselves a goal now to avoid the wooden spoon in 2022. It might not sound like much, but if they can scrape ahead of West Coast and avoid that ignominy, it will be proof to those hurting players and fans that their hard work can bring tangible improvement.
At least they’ve started the journey now.
Around the grounds If you were to pick a premier right here, right now, it should be Geelong . This season has taught us that things can change quickly, but their handling of Carlton was an ominous display. While many of the contenders are still on the rise, this is a fully grown team.
Can anyone stop the Cats in 2022?(AAP: Joel Carrett Spare a thought for Saints fans . Imagine trying to keep up with that team emotionally. They’re just as likely to go to Perth and belt the Eagles next week, just to put everyone back through the ringer again.
You could say similar of the Swans, who have claimed some seismic wins this year in among some bemusing losses. This one against Freo was one of their best of the year, and has yet again thrown the top-four race wide open.
So much of the excellent work Kysaiah Pickett does for Melbourne goes unnoticed, so it was great to get a day of non-stop Kozzy highlights . He’s a top-five most watchable player in the league when he’s let off the chain.
Alice Springs was treated to the Kozzy Show on Sunday.(Getty Images/AFL Photos: Michael Willson Speaking of six-goal small forwards, Luke Breust was basically the difference alone for the Hawks against West Coast. That’s six wins for Hawthorn now, just one shy of last year’s total. Beating that should be the very achievable objective.
Boy did the Lions need that one. A good win, a good performance and a sigh of relief after last week’s wild ride. And it turns out the rough and unpolished edges of Rhys Mathieson might be just what an otherwise perhaps slightly too neat-and-tidy team needs .
It’s been a big month for the Suns, and it looked like this one was one challenge too many. They looked spent, and the Bombers absolutely cashed in. Essendon’s post-bye improvement is quantifiable and a credit to Ben Rutten .
In the clubhouse Here we take stock of who is leading the race for the season’s individual awards.
All season we’ve been warning you that there was another level of Nick Daicos waiting to be unleashed. Fair to say that came to pass on Saturday arvo.
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Not too many first-year players will end up with a 40 disposal, three-goal game to their name. He’s special, and he’s got the Rising Star sewn up.
We have a new goal of the year contender too! Essendon’s Sam Draper went solo, plucking the ball out of the ruck, getting the one-two back, stepping an opponent, and snapping the goal…
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But is it the best goal of the year so far? It’s competing with more split-second moments of skill from the likes of Ed Langdon, Shai Bolton and Caleb Serong, and it seems to be a little more impressive because it’s a ruck doing the dancing.
We’re going to reserve judgement until the hype wears off a little, but we’re still leaning towards Langdon or Serong fronting the pack for now. Give us a week to sit on it.
Meanwhile, GWS’s Sam Taylor takes mark of the week honours for this courageous effort against Brisbane, one of what seemed like 50 intercept grabs he took on the day. Mitch Georgiades’s MOTY lead is safe for now though.
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